intelligence for the markets that move.
Autonomous AI agents that scan, reason, and surface trade opportunities — across prediction markets, real-world radar, and commodities. Full reasoning. Zero noise. In real time.
built for prediction-market traders · macro & commodity desks · research & intel analysts
three agents.
one intelligence layer.
Every agent runs the same core: detect → reason → audit → surface. Only the market they watch differs.
prediction markets
Multi-strategy agent for Polymarket. Mean regression + momentum, with news, LLM reasoning, audit, and planner math on every trade.
real-world radar
Real-time modeling of the real world — geopolitics, macro regimes, narrative velocity, cross-market flow. Multi-asset signals with the reasoning chain that produced them.
oil · gas · metals
Geopolitical + supply-chain intelligence for energy and metals. Reasoning-first signals on where the curve breaks and why — not just chart patterns.
every signal,
on-chain.
We commit a SHA-256 hash of every signal we generate to Polygon before the trade plays out. 30 days later the plaintext is published via our daily IPFS reveal. Anyone can verify — no need to trust us.
different questions.
same method.
Each theater asks its own kind of question. All three go through the same observe → reason → verify → surface loop. No chart-reading. No vibes.
"what outcome is mispriced
versus what's about to happen?"
"what's changing in the real world
before markets realize it?"
"where is physical supply
quietly repricing risk?"
what moves the world,
we track.
A snapshot of topics our three agents have produced reasoning on recently. Breadth isn't a flex — it's the point. Cross-market truth only emerges when you watch all of them at once.
↑ 12 topic streams shown · agents add new ones as markets evolve · same reasoning standard across all of them
trust comes from proof,
not from claims.
every position, published
Every trade we open and close is posted publicly — market, side, entry, exit, P&L, timing. No cherry-picked screenshots, no curated highlights. The full ledger lives at our public X / TG channel.
every signal, on-chain
Each signal's SHA-256 hash gets committed to Polygon at push time. Plaintext is revealed 30 days later via our daily IPFS bundle. Anyone can clone the open-source verifier and check.
reasoning behind the paywall
The news the agent read, the audit gate's decision, the planner numbers, the signal conviction — that's the mechanics of the edge. We don't publish those. That's what subscribers pay for.
questions.
do you execute trades for me?
No. We're a signal + reasoning layer — you still place trades yourself on Polymarket (or whichever venue). Pro includes one-click deep-links that open the exact market we called.
what LLMs do you use?
A tiered model stack — expensive reasoning models for main decisions, cheaper models for auxiliary tasks (news triage, entity extraction, keyword generation). We tune the mix weekly based on accuracy vs cost.
how is "real-time" real-time?
Our scanner runs every 30 seconds. When a signal survives all gates, it's pushed to paid subscribers via Telegram within ~1 second. Free tier sees the same signals on a 4-hour delay.
how do I verify a signal isn't photoshopped?
Every signal's SHA-256 hash is committed to Polygon at push time, before the trade plays out. 30 days later, the plaintext is published via our daily IPFS reveal. Anyone can clone our open-source verifier and check that what we publish matches what's on-chain — github.com/sifaka-trades/sifaka-commitment-verifier. Trust is cryptographic, not vibes.
is this financial advice?
No. We publish outcomes (every position's entry, exit, P&L) and cryptographic proof those trades happened. The reasoning behind each signal — the news, the audit, the planner math — is the paid product, not advice. Prediction markets carry risk; past performance doesn't predict future results.
stop reading charts.
start reading reasoning.
Two agents live, one in development. Every signal ships with the reasoning behind it — open any product and watch it work.
Every Sunday: closed positions, base rates that surprised us, on-chain reveals due that week. No spam.
Real-time signal feed with full reasoning. Free tier sees the same data on a 4-hour delay. No card required to start.
launch pm_trade →